(Yicai Global) Jan. 31 -- The economic consequences of the novel coronavirus outbreak are difficult to quantify at this early stage and depend on how quickly the virus recedes, the China Daily reported today, citing the International Monetary Fund.

"The economic impact will depend very much on the behavior of the illness itself, how fast it spreads, who it affects and how quickly the contagion will run its course," said Gerry Rice, director of the IMF's communications department.

If the virus retreats quickly, the impact on the Chinese economy should be temporary and reversible, he said. Annual growth took a relatively small hit in 2003 when there was an outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, a different strain of coronavirus, because it was soon contained.

The direct economic impact of the virus would mostly be due to a fall in demand, he said. What is usually a peak retail and tourism season over the Spring Festival break has essentially ground to a halt as people have stayed home. On the supply side, there have been production stoppages, transport delays and employees not yet returning to work.

Indirectly, the outbreak is having an impact on confidence and creating uncertainty, he said. For example, the mainland stock markets have remained closed for an extended Chinese New Year holiday.

Asia is the region likely to be most affected, as there will be a reduction in the number of Chinese people traveling abroad along with a slowdown in imports and domestic economic activity, he added.

Editor: Kim Taylor