China's New Tariffs on US Crude, LNG to Have Limited Impact on Its Domestic Market, Experts Say
Guo Jiying
DATE:  2 hours ago
/ SOURCE:  Yicai
China's New Tariffs on US Crude, LNG to Have Limited Impact on Its Domestic Market, Experts Say China's New Tariffs on US Crude, LNG to Have Limited Impact on Its Domestic Market, Experts Say

(Yicai) Feb. 7 -- China's new import tariffs on crude oil and liquefied natural gas imported from the US will only slightly affect its domestic market, considering global oversupply and the Asian country's diversified import structure, according to industry experts.

However, US energy exports to China are expected to decline due to suppliers seeking alternative destinations, the experts told Yicai, adding that the tariffs will also directly increase import costs.

China began importing LNG from the US in 2016, with imports reaching 4.16 million tons last year, accounting for 5.4 percent of its total and only 1.3 percent of its gas supply, according to customs data.

LNG import costs could rise by CNY600 (USD83.50) per ton based on last year's import prices, according to Feng Haicheng, senior analyst at commodity market research platform SCI99. However, US LNG accounts for a small portion of China's imports, and historically, hiking tariffs have had a negligible impact on its natural gas market, he added.

"The tariffs will weaken US LNG's competitiveness in the Chinese market, likely leading to fewer imports this year," Huang Qing, general manager and chief information officer at CEthinktank, a consultancy in the natural gas sector, said to Yicai. "Chinese buyers with long-term US LNG contracts may redirect shipments to other regions."

Some Chinese companies are already evaluating the tariffs' impact and may increase resales of US resources to Europe, where demand is high while sourcing spot purchases from international markets, potentially increasing LNG trading frequency, Huang noted.

"Chinese importers face relatively minor impact from trade friction, but their enthusiasm for new US long-term contracts may decline," Huang said, adding that current and pending LNG purchase contracts between China and the US total 25.56 million tons a year.

"Ongoing China-US trade tensions could suppress oil demand in the global market, continuing to put pressure on oil prices," said Xi Jiarui, senior oil market analyst at JLC Network Technology.

On Feb. 4, China's Customs Tariff Commission announced retaliatory tariffs on certain US products starting Feb. 10, including 10 percent on crude oil and 15 percent on coal and LNG, in response to US President Donald Trump's executive order imposing a 10 percent levy on imports from the Asian country.

During Trump's first term, China imposed 25 percent tariffs on LNG imported from the US in June 2019 after halting such imports in March 2019, gradually granting exemptions after February 2020. The policy had minimal impact on China's natural gas market, according to official figures.

Editor: Martin Kadiev

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Keywords:   tariff,LNG,oil,China-US trade,energy market