(Yicai) Feb. 27 -- China's new energy vehicle industry is still in the first stage of technological transformation and the electric car revolution can only be deemed successful after completing its electrification, intelligence, and low-carbon transition, according to the vice chairman of third-party think tank China EV100.

It may take until 2035 for the electric vehicle revolution to be completed, Ouyang Minggao, who is also an academician at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said at a media interaction event held by China EV100 Forum in Beijing on Feb. 25. 

Vehicle intelligence is the upcoming second phase of tech transformation, according to Ouyang. It will likely transform the industrial model and become a new competitive point in the sector, he noted, adding that firms need to be prepared to enter a new stage of mergers and acquisitions.

Deepseek's emergence has lowered the technical threshold for the computing power and algorithms of end-to-end autonomous driving large models, Ouyang pointed out. This will have a huge role in promoting the accelerated application of self-driving tech in China's auto industry, he added.

NEV sales in China are expected to reach around 16 million this year, Ouyang said. The share of plug-in hybrids will likely surge to around 40 percent, of range-extended EVs will remain at around 10 percent, and of pure EVs will drop to about 50 percent, he noted.

However, it is entirely possible for the share of pure EVs to drop to around 40 percent and of plug-in hybrids to jump to 50 percent over the next few years, he said.

NEV sales in China topped 12.86 million units last year, according to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. Pure EVs accounted for 60 percent of the total, down from 70.4 percent the year before, while plug-in hybrid and extended-range autos made up the rest.

"China's battery tech is world-leading," Ouyang said regarding the chance of foreign carmakers using all-solid-state batteries in EVs before Chinese peers. "It is not easy for foreign firms to achieve market disruption, so even if Chinese companies start using solid-state batteries a year later, it will not significantly impact the market."

Chinese automakers are expected to install solid-state batteries in EVs by 2027 and achieve mass production in 2030, Ouyang noted.

After the mass production of solid-state batteries, the popularization of charging infrastructure, and the intelligent energy system for vehicle-grid interaction, the market share of pure electric passenger vehicles will start rising again and eventually exceed 70 percent, according to Ouyang.

Editors: Tang Shihua, Martin Kadiev