(Yicai) Jan. 18 -- China’s economy may expand by just under 5 percent in the coming 12 months, a slightly slower pace than last year, according to the average prediction of chief economists polled by Yicai.

The median forecast is for 4.88 percent growth in gross domestic product in 2024, with the highest projection at 5 percent and the lowest at 4.5 percent, the survey of 16 leading economists in China revealed.

GDP grew by 5.2 percent last year, above the government’s target of “around 5 percent,” the National Bureau of Statistics announced yesterday.

The real estate sector slump may ease over the next year, while consumers will become more willing to spend excess savings, according to Ding Shuang, chief economist at Standard Chartered China and the most bullish on growth. Improving China-US relations will also underpin a 5 percent clip, he added.

At the other end of the predications spectrum, Li Wenlong, chief economist at Pan-Asia Research Institute of Digital Economy, said the annual GDP growth target should not be set too high as that could encourage local governments to blindly pursue growth and neglect economic structural adjustments at a time when the property and external trade sectors still face much uncertainty.

The economists predict an average 0.88 percent increase in the consumer price index in 2024, up 0.66 point on the official CPI growth last year. The producer price index is forecast to fall more slowly, dipping 0.07 percent, compared with a 3 percent decline in 2023. 

Retail sales of consumer goods could jump 5.35 percent, 1.85 point less than last year, the economists forecast. Industrial added value may increase 0.1 percentage point to grow by 4.7 percent, while fixed-assets investments could rise 4.57 percent, versus a 3 percent gain last year, they said.

Consumption became a pillar of GDP growth in 2023, said Wang Han, chief economist at Industrial Securities. It has not recovered to the pre-pandemic level, but a virtuous cycle of consumption, employment, and income has formed, with the recovery set to continue, he noted.

Exports will grow, reversing last year's decline and posing less of a drag on economic growth, thanks to a global trade recovery and the county's enhanced competitiveness in manufacturing and high-tech, said Cheng Shi, chief economist at ICBC International Holdings.

However, headwinds in developed economies and geopolitical conflicts may still curb the pickup in trade, Cheng added. But emerging markets, including those in Central Asia, Africa, and Latin America, are expected to continue to grow rapidly, which will supplement the growth momentum of China's external trade, he noted. 

The economists expect exports to rise 2.23 percent and imports to climb 1.68 percent this year, compared with a decline last year, in US dollar terms, of 4.6 percent and 5.5 percent, respectively. The trade surplus could expand to USD845.4 billion from USD823.2 billion, they added. 

Editors: Dou Shicong, Martin Kadiev