(Yicai) Oct. 18 -- China's economy expanded 4.6 percent in the third quarter from a year ago, the National Bureau of Statistics said today, reflecting a generally stable economic performance despite challenges.

Growth missed the average 4.65 percent increase predicted by 13 China-based chief economists surveyed by Yicai, after rising 4.7 percent in the second quarter and 5.3 percent in the first quarter.

The economy was stable overall in the first three quarters of this year and recent key economic indicators have shown positive changes, NBS Deputy Director Sheng Laiyun said at a press conference today.

In the first three quarters, gross domestic product grew 4.8 percent from a year ago, according to the NBS, compared with 5 percent growth in the first half.

Fourth-Quarter Upturn

“Positive factors driving a steady economic recovery accumulated and increased in September,” Sheng noted.

Last month, value-added industrial output climbed 5.4 percent from the same period of last year, compared with 4.5 percent in August, while retail sales of consumer goods rose 3.2 percent, versus a 2.1 percent gain in the previous month.

Since the end of last month, the government has rolled out China’s biggest economic stimulus package to steady growth and help the economy achieve an annual growth target of around 5 percent. Ministers and other officials express confidence in hitting that.

Fourth-quarter GDP growth is expected in the range of 4.6 percent to 5 percent, with a mean figure of 4.88 percent and a median of 4.95 percent, according to Yicai’s poll of chief economists.

With the support of robust economic policies, the problem of insufficient effective demand will ease this quarter and exports will remain resilient, said Lian Ping, director of Guangzhou Development District Holding Group's industrial research institute. The likelihood of hitting the 5 percent annual growth target is quite high, he added.

Domestic investment and consumption will be better next year even though exports may come under pressure, Lian noted. Overall, the economy is still likely to achieve growth of about 5 percent in 2025 if the government’s economic policies remain relatively robust, he said.

Nine-Month Data Breakdown

Fixed-asset investment rose 3.4 percent to CNY37.9 trillion (USD5.34 trillion) in the first nine months of 2024, maintaining the same growth as in the first eight months, the NBS data showed.

Investment in infrastructure construction and high-tech industries jumped 4.1 percent and 10 percent, respectively, and manufacturing investment jumped 9.2 percent. Meanwhile, property investment slumped 10.1 percent. Excluding the drop in real estate investment, national fixed-asset investment grew climbed 7.7 percent.

Value-added industrial output rose 5.8 percent, with the figure for equipment and high-tech manufacturing up 7.5 percent and 9.1 percent, respectively.

Editors: Shi Yi, Futura Costaglione