(Yicai) Dec. 17 -- China's foreign trade is expected to remain resilient despite the possibility of renewed trade tensions with the United States under a second Trump administration, according to a former appellate judge at the World Trade Organization.

China has maintained strong international trade momentum by effectively adapting to the higher US import tariffs introduced by the first Trump administration, Zhao Hong told Yicai at a conference on customs clearance and compliance management held in the city of Wuxi on Dec. 12 and 13.

“These past years, bilateral trade has continued to develop against very turbulent and unfavorable conditions," said Zhao, who sat on the WTO’s Appellate Body and is now a law professor at Peking University.

She credited this partly to China’s swift post-pandemic production recovery and the rise of new export drivers such as electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products, which are reshaping China’s export landscape with high-value-added goods.

China's trade diversification has also yielded impressive results, according to Zhao. China trades with more than 230 countries and regions, and is the main trading partner for over 140 of them. Importantly, China has become a top-three trading partner for 114 countries in the Belt and Road Initiative, including being the main trader with 68 of them, she said.

Zhao noted that new opportunities are emerging in markets such as Latin America, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Africa, and Europe, where trade momentum remains strong. China is also constantly adjusting its export structure to reflect new trends. Cross-border e-commerce, for example, is regarded as the "new blue ocean" of foreign trade, especially in developing markets beyond the traditional ones such as the US and Europe, she said.

Recent customs data confirms these trends. In the January to November period of this year, China’s trade with the rest of the world grew 4.9 percent from a year earlier to CNY39.79 trillion (USD5.46 trillion), with imports and exports up 2.4 percent and 6.7 percent to CNY23.04 trillion and CNY15.75 trillion, respectively, according to the General Administration of Customs.

Tariff Threats

US President-elect Donald Trump, who will return to the White House on Jan. 20, has threatened to hike tariffs on Chinese imports by up to 60 percent and increase the levies on goods from other major trading partners, including Canada, Mexico, and the European Union, by 10 percent to 20 percent.

Addressing this matter, Zhao emphasized China’s proactive countermeasures, including export tax rebates and tighter controls on strategic exports, which not only safeguard China’s economic interests but also bolster its negotiating leverage.

“US trade policy is more akin to protectionism, while China’s approach reflects a more open stance,” she noted. “The two nations represent entirely different economic models: China prioritizes real industry, while the US operates largely in financial markets.”

She also pointed out that while the US has an “us versus them” mentality, China remains faithful to its cultural concept of a unified world “all under Heaven” dating back 3,000 years.

Nevertheless, “the philosophy, investment strategy, and the mindset of Chinese companies can certainly be improved,” Zhao said. "Our approach should focus more on contributing China's wisdom and strength to shape a fairer, more just, and reasonable international economic and trade landscape.

"By enhancing our ability to create and influence international rules, we can better protect the interests of our enterprises," she said.

Editor: Futura Costaglione