(Yicai) Jan. 14 -- China’s exports are likely to achieve modest growth this year despite the country’s foreign trade environment facing greater uncertainty, according to the executive director of Golden Credit Rating’s economic research and development department.

Exports will go on rising, driven by the recovery in external demand, faster growth in global trade, and the upward cycle in the electronics industry, Feng Lin said in a recent interview with Yicai.

China's new export business model is also growing quickly, and the policy of stabilizing foreign trade is also showing clear effects, she said, adding that e-commerce and electric vehicle exports are expected to maintain rapid growth.

Last October, the International Monetary Fund forecast global trade to increase by 3.4 percent this year, up from a 3.1 percent gain last year. Historically, there has never been a time when global trade expanded while China’s shrank, Feng pointed out.

China’s trade rose 5 percent to a record CNY43.85 trillion (USD5.98 trillion) in 2024, according to the General Administration of Customs. Exports rose 7.1 percent to CNY25.45 trillion, rising for the eighth straight year and pushing past CNY25 trillion for the first time. Imports edged up 2.3 percent to CNY18.39 trillion, generating a trade surplus of CNY7.06 trillion (USD962.9 billion).

In US dollar terms, exports rose 5.9 percent to USD3.58 trillion last year, compared with a 4.6 percent decline in 2023, thanks to a surge in external demand at the end of the year.

Exports climbed 10.7 percent in December, up from November’s 6.7 percent. Shipments to the United States alone soared 15.6 percent, versus 8 percent the month before, hitting USD48.8 billion, the highest monthly figure for last year.

Even though the uncertainty surrounding China-US economic and trade relations may deepen this year, China’s dependence on the US market for foreign trade has already fallen, Feng noted, adding that the timing and extent of US tariff hikes are also still unknown.

Chinese exports of integrated circuits surged 17 percent by value and 12 percent by volume last year, IMF data showed. For auto exports, mostly EVs, they climbed 16 percent and 23 percent, respectively. E-commerce exports maintained double-digit growth throughout the year.

Editor: Futura Costaglione