(Yicai) Dec. 19 -- China’s economy will achieve relatively high growth next year, according to the general consensus among the chief economists who attended a recent financial forum.

Initial estimates suggest China’s gross domestic product will expand by 5.2 percent in 2024, Guotai Junan Securities’ He Haifeng noted at the annual China International Finance Forum held in Shanghai between Dec. 14 and 15.

GDP probably increased by 5.4 percent or even by 5.6 percent this year, He added. The Chinese government set a target of "about 5 percent" earlier in the year.

After climbing by 5.3 percent in 2023, GDP growth will slow next year to 4.6 percent, according to Yu Xiangrong, Citigroup’s chief economist for China. But considering last year's low base, 4.6 percent is not that slow compared with this year’s expansion, he added.

“Looking ahead, the Chinese economy is likely to advance amid twists and turns,” Yu noted.

He expects the economy to enter a two-track recovery, with the overall momentum depending on the relative strength between the ‘real estate track’ and the ‘non-real estate track.’ The property sector has not yet emerged from its difficulties and needs more time for adjustment, Yu noted.

The government’s economic policies will become more proactive, Yu pointed out, noting that the real estate market in particular needs more policy support.

The general opinion among the economists gathered at the forum was that achieving the goal of higher economic growth requires coordinated efforts from fiscal and monetary policies and the proactive search for new growth drivers.

The underlying principle of prioritizing stability while seeking progress that was put forward at the government’s Central Economic Work Conference, held in Beijing from Dec. 11 to 12, has set the direction for fiscal and monetary policy, according to He.

Against the backdrop of potential interest rate cuts in the United States, China will have more room to adjust monetary policy, He added. In the context of an expected narrowing in the interest rate spread between China and the US, there may be one or two opportunities for cuts in China’s reserve requirement ratio next year, he said.

The integration of digital technologies and the brick-and-mortar economy will bring new growth momentum, He said. China's digital economy grew 10.3 percent in 2022 from the previous year, significantly faster than GDP expanded over the past 11 years, while its share of the overall economy reached 42 percent, He pointed out. 

Editors: Tang Shihua, Martin Kadiev