(Yicai Global) Dec. 24 -- Among the two participants of the China-US trade dispute, it is China who has more to lose, according to an executive at a government-led think tank.

The negative impact is greater on China's economy than that of the US, said Lou Feng from the Institute of Quantitative Economics and Technical Economics under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Lou was speaking at the launch of the 2019 Blue Book of China's Economy today.

The director's team has simulated three different tariff scenarios between the two countries. Those prove that the growth of their gross domestic products will slow down while that for most other nations will accelerate. Countries that may offer substitutes for China-made products, including Vietnam and Mexico, benefit the most. Vietnam's economic growth rate could be as much as 18 percent, and that of Mexico 0.8 percent.

Only in terms of exports would the US suffer more. China's exports may fall 4.2 percent, 7.5 percent or 9.7 percent, according to the three projections. Those of the States may decline 5.1 percent, 8.8 percent or 10.9 percent. The European Union, Australia, South Korea, Japan may also have adverse effects to bear.

If the current scheme of import duties stays in place, China will lose 8.6 million jobs, and the US will lop off about 1.3 million jobs.

Editor: Emmi Laine