(Yicai Global) Jan. 13 -- China’s foreign trade may face less pressure in the second half of this year, according to economists, after strong official data for 2022 was released today.

Imports and exports climbed 7.7 percent year on year to top the CNY42 trillion (USD5.96 trillion) mark for the first time, with exports up 10.5 percent at CNY23.97 trillion and imports 4.3 percent higher at CNY18.1 trillion, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. 

China’s exports had an international market share of 14.7 percent last year, the highest worldwide for the 14th consecutive year, GAC spokesperson Lv Daliang said at a press conference. 

Trade with the United States rose 3.7 percent to CNY5.05 trillion (USD752 billion), while that with the European Union and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations rose 5.6 percent to CNY5.65 trillion and 15 percent to CNY6.52 trillion, respectively. 

Trade with countries in China’s Belt and Road Initiative jumped 19.4 percent to make up 32.9 percent of the total, a 3.2 percentage point gain from 2021, with exports up 20 percent. Meanwhile, trade with other members of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership rose 7.5 percent, and exports to African and Latin American countries jumped 14.8 percent and 14.1 percent, respectively. 

Foreign trade was better than expected last month, with exports and imports down 9.9 percent and 7.5 percent from a year ago, the data showed. Chief economists polled by Yicai Global had predicted a decline in exports of 10.48 percent and a drop in imports of 9.08 percent.

Weaker Overseas Demand

Exports have fallen for three months in a row, but the declines were smaller than anticipated. A contraction in overseas demand remained a key factor, the National Economic Research Center at Peking University pointed out in a report. The surge in Covid-19 infections in China also impacted logistics and the output of export firms to some extent, it said.

The sluggish state of global trade has been reflected in lower shipping rates. The cost of transporting a 40-foot container to Los Angeles from Shanghai was USD1,964 as of Jan. 5, down 81 percent from a year ago, according to the World Container Index provided by international logistics consultancy Drewry Shipping Consultants. Freight on the Shanghai-Rotterdam sea route was down 86 percent at USD1,874. 

In the first half of this year, there may be pressure on China’s foreign trade as the European and US economies face headwinds, Huo Jianguo, vice president of the China Society for World Trade Organization Studies, told Yicai Global.

“If the supply of domestic goods rebounds, we can still seek alternative clients by expanding in the markets of ASEAN members and Latin American countries,” he said. “But the situation will become quite difficult if overall domestic production cannot hold up.

“It now appears that foreign trade will face certain pressures in the first half,” Huo added, “but the situation will ease in the second half, as the gradual invigoration of the domestic economy and improvements in overall expectations support economic growth.”

Editor: Tom Litting