(Yicai Global) May 7 -- Pork production will near an all-time high in China this year thanks to the full recovery of hog herds, while prices of the meat will fall amid volatility, according to a report from a think tank under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

China’s live pig production is expected to increase by eight million tons to roughly 50 million tons in 2021, the Rural Development Institute said in a report published yesterday.

High profits are driving the growth after China brought in support measures and farmers have learned how to deal with African swine fever, the report said. But breeders still faces uncertainty from the deadly pig disease that first broke out in August 2018, crimping pork supplies and inflating prices over the past two years.

The cost of pork soared 42.5 percent in 2019 and 49.7 percent in 2020, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics.

With ASF gradually brought under control, hog breeding has rapidly picked up since the start of this year. Pig numbers stood at 416 million in the three months ended March 31, returning to just over 94 percent of what they were at the end of 2017, NBS data showed. Pork production jumped 32 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier to 13.69 million tons.

China will import over six million tons of pork and offal this year, up over 5 percent from last year, driven by the price spread between domestic and overseas pork, the report said. So pork supplies will exceed 56 million tons this year, coming close to a record high.

As supplies ease the cost of pork will also come down from high levels amid volatile price swings, the report said. But there is little chance of oversupply this year, given growing demand.

Editor: Peter Thomas