(Yicai Global) March 5 -- Many of China's key economic indicators likely fell during the first two months due to the novel coronavirus epidemic, according to chief economists surveyed by Yicai Research Institute who think the virus will hamper global manufacturing and tourism the hardest in the short term.

The 22 economists predict that the following gauges all declined annually at various rates during January and February: retail sales of consumer goods, industrial added value, fixed asset investment growth, trade growth, real estate investment growth.

The average forecasts were

-  A 3.08 percent dip in retail sales of consumer goods (compared with an 8.2 percent increase a year earlier)

-  A 1.83 percent drop in industrial added value (compared with a 5.3 percent gain a year earlier)

-  A 2.14 percent dip in fixed asset investment (compared with a 6.1 percent rise a year earlier)

-  A 12.85 percent slide in exports (compared with a 7.6 percent increase in December)

-  A 13.12 percent fall in imports (compared with a 16.3 percent increase in December)

-  China's trade surplus would fall to USD29.2 billion (compared with USD46.8 billion in December)

China should try harder to prevent patients re-entering the country, increase the counter-cyclical adjustment of policies and adopt more proactive fiscal and monetary policies focused on maintaining stability while increasing flexibility, the surveyed economists said.

Eighteen of the economists predict the one-year loan prime rate will fall this year, and six forecast that the central bank would reduce the reserve requirement ratio for commercial banks again this month.

The central bank will likely look to boost liquidity at small- and medium-sized banks as the epidemic is causing them more trouble, said Ding Anhua of China Merchants Bank. The central bank may use targeted reserve requirement ratio cuts and adjust benchmark deposit interest rates to guide rate declines, he added.

Editors: Tang Shihua, James Boynton