China's Economy Set for 6.6% Growth This Year, CASS Survey Says
Zhu Yanran
/SOURCE : Yicai
China's Economy Set for 6.6% Growth This Year, CASS Survey Says

(Yicai Global) June 13 -- China's gross domestic product is expected to grow at 6.6 percent this year according to a survey of the country's leading economists.

Experts in the country have become less confident regarding economic growth and export performance this year, reported Chinese Economist, a journal of the Institute of Industrial Economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. 

Some 16 percent of economists polled believe that economic growth for the second quarter will be higher than a year ago, and 55 percent expect it to remain unchanged from the previous quarter. 

In terms of geographical factors, economists in eastern, central and western China project annual growth to be 6.6 percent, 6.7 percent and 6.5 percent, respectively, for this year, compared with a 6.6 percent on a nationwide basis.

Economists also expect narrowing inflation. Some 55 percent of economists believe price levels will be higher in the second quarter than the same period last year, while one-quarter believe that price levels will remain basically the same. The survey's consumer price index reading was 135, down 9 points from last quarter, a sign that inflation will slow. 

The survey also polled economists on overcapacity issues. Some 40 percent of economists believe that serious and pervasive de-capacity exits, while one-third believe only a handful of industries suffer serious overcapacity. Close to three-quarters of the respondents believe problems caused by overcapacity will be alleviated in the next decade, but it will still exist in a small number of industries.

Economists blame weak innovation among companies for excess capacity, as well as improper government regulation.

Editor: William Clegg


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Keywords: China Economist