(Yicai) Jan. 7 -- Confidence in China’s economic prospects remained positive this month, as chief economists surveyed by Yicai generally expect the government to introduce more economic stimulus policies this year.

The Yicai Chief Economists Confidence Index came in at 50.66 for January, down from 50.72 in December but remaining above the contraction-expansion threshold of 50 for the fourth straight month. Yicai polled 14 leading China-based chief economists.

The index was 50.78 in November and 50.62 in October, after having plunged to 49.96 in September, the lowest in 20 months.

After announcing last September the biggest stimulus package since the Covid-19 pandemic, China’s top policymakers vowed last month to embrace a “moderately loose” monetary policy this year and a “more proactive” fiscal policy, including a rare increase in the budget deficit ratio and the sale of more government bonds, to bolster the economy.

The consumer price index likely rose 0.2 percent last month from a year earlier, the same as December’s increase, the chief economists predicted. They expect the producer price index to have fallen 2.36 percent, compared with the previous month’s 2.22 percent decline.

Their average growth forecast for fixed asset investment and industrial added value remained steady at 3.31 percent and 5.35 percent, respectively, for December.  They expect consumer good sales to have climbed 3.54 percent, up from 3 percent in November.

December’s trade surplus was likely USD96.941 billion, compared with USD97.44 billion the previous month, the economists forecast. Imports are expected to have fallen 0.46 percent, and exports to have risen 7.11 percent, versus a decline of 3.9 percent and an increase of 6.7 percent, respectively, in November.

The economists expect new yuan-denominated loans to have jumped to CNY869.636 billion (USD117.43 billion) in December from CNY580 billion the month before. Meanwhile, they forecast social financing to have dropped to CNY2.17 trillion (USD296.08 billion) from CNY2.34 trillion.

China’s foreign exchange reserves probably totaled USD3.261922 trillion at the end of December, down from USD3.2659 trillion at the end of November, they predicted.

Editor: Futura Costaglione