(Yicai) Oct. 14 -- A gauge of confidence in China’s economic outlook rose above the boom-bust line this month, as chief economists surveyed by Yicai generally expect a rebound this quarter following the new stimulus package set out by the government since late last month.

The Yicai Chief Economists Confidence Index jumped to 50.62 in October from 49.96 in September, returning above the key 50 level after falling below it for the first time in 20 months, according to a poll of 13 leading China-based economists published by Yicai yesterday.

Gross domestic product likely grew 4.65 percent in the third quarter, slightly below the second quarter’s 4.7 percent, the chief economists predicted. Their forecast for the fourth quarter ranged from 4.6 percent to 5 percent, with a mean of 4.88 percent and a median of 4.95 percent.

The economy will likely revive this quarter because of the introduction of new measures to support growth released at the end of last month, with market confidence expected to recover gradually over the period, the economists indicated.

The latest policies indicate that China has begun a new round of counter-cyclical adjustments, with those adjustments exceeding expectations, said Cai Wei, chief strategy officer at KPMG China Advisory. With continued policy stimulus, economic momentum will bottom out and rebound this quarter, helping the country achieve its 5 percent annual GDP growth target, he noted.

China’s macroeconomic data are expected to grow stably in the fourth quarter, said Cheng Shi, chief economist at Industrial and Commercial Bank of China International. Restored domestic demand will be a key driver, with structural reforms and innovation-driven strategies enhancing the economy’s internal momentum, he added.

Economic growth will likely accelerate this quarter thanks to solid support from the new policies, some alleviation of insufficient demand, and export resilience, said Lian Ping, chief economist at the Guangkai Chief Industry Research Institute. The likelihood of achieving 5 percent annual growth remains high, he noted.

Looking ahead to next year, Lian expects investment and consumption to improve with the more relaxed monetary and fiscal policies. Though the contribution of exports to economic performance may be weaker than this year, he expects growth to remain around 5 percent.

The National Bureau of Statistics is due to publish key economic figures for the third quarter and first nine months of this year, including GDP growth, investment, and retail sales of consumer goods, on Oct. 18.

Editors: Tang Shihua, Futura Costaglione