(Yicai Global) July 8 -- Chief economists, polled by Yicai Global, have raised their 2021 gross domestic product forecast for China to an 8.7 percent jump amid the rapidly recovering economy.

China's GDP should rise 0.2 percentage point more than the earlier estimate of an 8.5 percent increase, according to the 21 financial professionals.

The correction is optimistic. On June 8, the World Bank upgraded its forecast for China to lead the global recovery by expanding its economy to the tune of 8.5 percent this year instead of the earlier estimate of a 7.9 percent increase.

The country's economy should widen by 8.3 percent in the second quarter, 20 of the 21 Yicai survey respondents added.

But not all gauges were rising. The Yicai chief economist confidence index slid for the third straight month to 52.72 this month, still remaining above the level of 50 which separates expansion from contraction.

CPI, PPI

The participants shared other insights. China's consumer price index may have climbed by 1.2 points in June from a year ago. In May, the official CPI rose 1.3 points.

The producer price index could have climbed by 8.6 points last month, the chief economists predicted. The official figure surged by 9 points in June.

The estimated trade surplus in June was USD39.5 billion, lower than the USD45.5 billion surplus logged in May.

Retail sales of consumer goods were predicted to have increased by 10.8 percent in June, lower than the growth rate of 12.4 percent a month earlier.

From January to June, fixed-asset investment was expected to have risen by 12.2 percent, lower than the growth rate of 15.4 percent recorded in the first five months of this year.

Macroeconomy

Macro policy was expected to remain stable with steady benchmark deposit rates, one-year loan prime rates, and deposit reserve ratios.

New yuan loans probably widened by CNY1.8 trillion (USD283.9 billion) in June, accelerating growth, the respondents added. In May, the figure had climbed by CNY1.5 trillion.

Total social financing may have increased by CNY2.9 trillion last month, much higher than the CNY1.9 trillion addition in May.

M2, which includes M1, savings deposits, and money market funds, was expected to have risen 8.3 percent last month from a year ago, basically stable with the growth rate seen in May.

The Chinese yuan was predicted to weaken. The forex rate against the US dollar could be 6.48 on July 31, according to the chief economists. On June 30, the rate was 6.4601. By December 31, the renminbi could stand at 6.47, which is softer than the earlier estimate of 6.43.

Editor: Emmi Laine, Xiao Yi