(Yicai Global) March 6 -- Chinese chief economists expect credit growth to have slowed down last month due to seasonal factors. 

New yuan loans may drop to CNY952.5 billion (USD141.9 billion) in February, which is over three times less than the official number of CNY3.2 trillion from January, the findings of the monthly Yicai Chief Economist Survey shows. Some 21 chief economists were interviewed for the report.

Social financing, a broad measure of credit and liquidity in the economy, will be CNY1.3 trillion (USD198.2 billion), much lower than the official data of CNY4.6 trillion last month, they added. 

Banks tend to lend more money in January because they think early lending brings in early earnings, said Pan Xiangdong from New Era Securities. Uncertainties of the macroeconomic situation and concerns about future lending rate declines are also reasons for the significant credit increase in January.

February had many factors that pulled the credit growth downward, such as Chinese Lunar New Year that took place in early February, the above-mentioned changes in lending, and a significant decrease in bankers' acceptance and discounting, Pan said.

Economists expected the annual M2 growth rate to drop slightly to 8.38 percent from 8.4 percent. The growth rate of M2 will basically be flat, though many factors indicate a relaxation of the domestic monetary policy, said Lian Ping from the Bank of Communications.

The survey participants predicted that retail sales of consumer goods will achieve an annual growth rate of 8.07 percent in the two months of January and February, down from last year's 9.7 percent.

The sectors of retail and catering achieved sales of about CNY1 trillion during the Chinese New Year holiday, a jump of 8.5 percent over last year, Lian said, adding that this is the first single-digit growth since 2014. Real estate, land transactions and auto consumption all exhibited a slowing trend.

Economists raised their expectations for China yuan's central parity rate against the US dollar to be 6.76  at the end of 2019. Last month, their bets were at 6.84. The exchange rate will remain stable at least in the coming months, said Xu Sitao from Deloitte China.

The best way to stabilize the exchange rate is to further open up China's huge domestic market, and enable other economies to benefit from the nation's prosperous consumer market, Xu said. Opening up the financial sector will also boost foreign investors' demand for yuan-denominated assets, Xu said.

Editor: Emmi Laine