(Yicai Global) June 26 -- China's gross domestic product is likely to have grown by 6.2 percent in the first half of this year, driven by strong consumption, according to a report published on the Renmin University of China's China Macroeconomy Forum.

Recovery growth was evident in the six months amid the release of pent-up demand, the effect of policy support, and low base figures a year earlier, said Liu Xiaoguang, one of the report's authors and a professor at the RUC's National Academy of Development and Strategy.

The triple pressures of contracting demand, supply shocks, and weakening expectations have been alleviated to varying degrees, as the economy shows signs of bottoming out, Liu said.

In the next six months, the economy will shift into expansionary growth based on last year's low base, the report said yesterday, adding that consumption will be a main factor in short-term growth.

For the whole of 2023, GDP will likely grow by 5.7 percent, with consumption, investment, and net exports expanding by 8 percent, 4.5 percent, and 1.8 percent, respectively, according to the report. Exports will fall by 4.9 percent.

The other prominent characteristic of the first half has been a hot macroeconomy and cold microeconomy, according to the report. Despite the economic rebound, there are still obstacles in the path to improving incomes, employment conditions, corporate performance, and market confidence.

“The economic recovery difficulties and pain points are concentrated in five 20 percents,” said Liu. 

Unemployment among young Chinese aged 16 to 24 reached 20 percent, industrial profits shrank by more than 20 percent in the first half from a year ago, government income from land auctions and newly-started property construction both fell 20 percent, and the gap in the consumer confidence index was as high as 20 percent, Liu pointed out.

The report showed that more active fiscal and easier monetary policies should be adopted, with greater efforts to expand domestic demand.

Editor: Martin Kadiev