2018 Too Early For Interest Rate Hike, BOC Chief Economist Says
Tang Shihua
DATE:  Dec 11 2017
/ SOURCE:  Yicai
2018 Too Early For Interest Rate Hike, BOC Chief Economist Says 2018 Too Early For Interest Rate Hike, BOC Chief Economist Says

(Yicai Global) Dec. 11 -- The chief economist at the Bank of Communications Co. [SHA:600028], China's fifth largest commercial bank, expects 2018 to be too early for an increase in interest rates given continued slow but steady growth, tightening monetary policy, moderate inflation and rising finance costs.

The Chinese economy will continue to stabilize next year with overall growth set to be around 6.7 percent, China Securities Journal cited Lian Ping, Bank of Communications Chief Economist, as saying at a securities sector summit of securities on Friday.

"The macroeconomic environment for 2018 is mixed. The recovery of the global economic recovery has advanced and China's exports are facing a more favorable environment, while the global capital flow pattern has changed, especially following the US' interest rate hike increase," Lian said. The shrinking balance sheet will bring challenges to China's international payment balance, RMB exchange rate, its internationalization and monetary policies, he added.

Monetary policies have remained stable this year, while financial supervision has become more stringent resulting in less credit. This situation could continue next year, especially in terms of financial leveraging, Lian said.

Although it's too early for an interest rate hike, Lian does not rule out the possibility that the central bank will increase the operating rate of liquidity adjustment tools as well as new policies to deal with external factors such as the interest rate increase in the US.

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Keywords:   MSCI,Monetary Policy,Economic Performance Expectation